Drivers' Championship arithmetic — what each contender actually needs, computed after every race and updated when the stewards confirm.
VolumeI · 2026 Season
Round11 · Hungarian GP
Updated26 Jul 2026
Remaining12 rds · 316 pts
The Margin · Drivers' Championship
The Margin · Hungarian GP, Round 11
Antonelli leads by fifty points. Hamilton has taken sixteen of them back in five rounds. The break arrives just as the chase began to mean something.
Championship Leader
Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes · #12
219pts
Wins · 6Podiums · 9DNFs · 1
The Margin50points
Nearest Chaser
Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari · #44
169pts
Wins · 1Podiums · 5DNFs · 0
I
The Standings.
Max remaining · 316 pts
Top 10 drivers. Bar width is proportional to the leader's total. Last five race finishes appear below each row — won (filled), podium (mid-shade), DNF (red).
#DriverPoints
II
What each contender actually needs.
Top 7
The required average finishing position over the remaining 16 rounds, assuming Antonelli maintains his current pace (26.0 pts/round). The number behind every "still mathematically alive" phrase.
III
Round by round — the swing.
Antonelli vs Hamilton
Positive: Antonelli gained on Hamilton that round. Negative: Hamilton gained. Across eleven rounds Hamilton has out-scored Antonelli twice — at Barcelona (by 25) and Silverstone (by 14). The net swing is still fifty points in Antonelli's favour.
Fig. 01 — Points Swing per RoundR01 — R11 · 2026
Antonelli gained Hamilton gained
Includes sprint points where applicable. Source: FIA classifications · post-stewards.
IV
The lifeline.
Top 7 drivers · gap ⇄ cumulative
Eleven rounds of accumulated totals. After Round 1 the gap to the nearest chaser was 6. After Round 11 it is 50 — a net gain of 44 points across ten rounds, averaging 4.4 per round. The rate has slowed: Antonelli's first-half dominance (66 points clear after six rounds) has been partially corrected by a 16-point swing back in rounds seven through eleven.
Fig. 02 — Gap to Leader
R01 — R11 · 2026
Each round's cumulative total. Sprint points included where applicable.
V
The rate they need.
Top 7 · pts/round to catch leader
The per-round average each chaser must out-score Antonelli by over the 12 remaining rounds to close the gap. Lines decay as rounds pass — every uncashed Sunday raises the rate the math asks of you. Click any name below to show or hide. Hover to preview. Tap "All" to reset.
Fig. 03 — Required pts/roundR12 — R23 · 2026
Required rate assumes Antonelli maintains his current 19.9 pts/round pace. Sprint weekends factored.
VI
Recent form.
Last 5 races · Top 7
Finishing positions, race by race. Win is filled in team colour, podium mid-shade, points-paying top-10 light, outside-points faint, DNF red. The shape of the line is the shape of the season.
VII
Elimination tracker.
316 pts available
Each bar reflects how much of the available remaining points a driver still has access to relative to the leader. Status indicates how soon they could be mathematically eliminated, given maximum remaining.
VIII
What if? — Round 12.
Round 12 · Dutch GP · sprint weekend
Pick a hypothetical Round 12 result. The top seven recompute — including the new margin to leader and the average per round each chaser would need from then on.
If / Then · Dutch GP
Select a hypothetical Round 12 outcome. The standings, gap, and required-average all recalculate. Zandvoort carries a sprint — these scenarios model the Sunday race only, so the real weekend swing can reach 33 points, not 25.
The Verdict
Hamilton needs 4.2 points a round for twelve rounds. Across the last five he has managed 3.2. The chase is real. It is also, at current rate, one point a round short of enough.
— The Margin · Hungarian GP, 26 July 2026
The Margin · Constructors, Round 11
Mercedes lead Ferrari by seventy-two points. Antonelli leads Russell by fifty-nine. One of those gaps is a championship. The other is a teammate.
Championship Leader
Mercedes
379pts
Wins · 8Avg/Round · 34.5P1 since · R01
The Margin72points
Nearest Chaser
Ferrari
307pts
Wins · 2Avg/Round · 27.9P2 since · R03
I
The Standings.
Max remaining · 632 pts
Bar width is proportional to the leader's total. Driver-split bars below each row show how the points are distributed within the team. Wins on the right edge of the bar.
#ConstructorPoints
II
Team balance — who carries whom.
Top 4 teams
The story of every constructors' championship is the story of two drivers in one car. The split between them is where margins are made — and where they are lost.
III
The weak-link cost.
vs RUS · 14.5 avg/round
Points each team's second driver is leaving on the table relative to the season's best second driver. George Russell sets the baseline at 14.7 pts/round — the highest average from any team's lower-scoring seat. Everyone else's gap is the cost of their second seat.
IV
Round by round — the swing.
Mercedes vs Ferrari
Positive bars: Mercedes gained that round. Negative: Ferrari gained. Ferrari have out-scored Mercedes four times — at Barcelona, Silverstone, Spa, and Budapest. The gap has held between 65 and 80 points for five consecutive rounds.
Fig. 01 — Points Swing per RoundR01 — R11 · 2026
Mercedes gained Ferrari gained
Source: FIA classifications · post-stewards · CCA-MARGIN-2026-11
V
The lifeline.
Top 4 teams · gap ⇄ cumulative
Eleven rounds of accumulated totals. The gap to leader widened from 16 after Round 1 to a peak of 98 after Austria, then narrowed to 72 after Round 11 — Ferrari clawing back 26 points across the last three rounds.
Fig. 02 — Gap to Leader
R01 — R11 · 2026
Each round's total carries forward. Sprint points included where applicable.
VI
Elimination tracker.
632 pts available
Bars fill with each team's mathematical viability relative to the leader. Status reflects how soon they could be mathematically eliminated, given maximum remaining points.
VII
What if? — Round 12.
Round 12 · Dutch GP · sprint weekend
Pick a hypothetical Round 12 result. The table recomputes — including the new margin to leader for the top five.
If / Then · Dutch GP
Select a hypothetical race result. The hypothetical standings appear below. Zandvoort carries a sprint — these scenarios model the Sunday race only.
The Verdict
Ferrari need 6.0 points a round to close it. Across the last three they have taken 8.7. The chase is finally running faster than the arithmetic demands. The calendar answers it with four weeks of nothing.